Gold (XAU/USD) trades choppy during Monday’s session as market participants now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates unchanged at the December meeting, while they also wait for the release of the first tranche of US economic data this week.
XAU/USD trades flat as markets price less than 50% chance of a December rate cut and await NFP and FOMC minutes
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,080, virtually unchanged. The Greenback’s recovery is sponsored by Federal Reserve officials striking hawkish comments. Hence, money markets had priced in a less than 50% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate reduction at the December meeting.
Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.20% at 99.47. This makes Bullion prices more expensive for foreign buyers; hence, Gold could continue to remain trading within the $4,000-$4,050 range ahead of the release of US economic data.
Ahead in the week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reveal its minutes on Wednesday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will unveil September’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures on Thursday.
Daily market movers: Gold falls amid strong US Dollar
Conversely, US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield down one and a half basis points to 4.133%. US real yields — which correlate inversely to Gold prices – are also down nearly two bps to 1.852%.
Fed Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson crossed the wires, said that upside risks to inflation have likely declined, opposite to downside risks to the labor market. He said that companies are reluctant to hire or fire and added that the current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive.
Money market players had priced in a more hawkish Fed, as data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows odds at 43% for a 25-basispoint cut at the December meeting. This means that the chances for holding rates stand at 57%.
Technical outlook: Gold hovers around $4,050
Gold’s broader uptrend remains intact, with the metal rebounding at around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,050. If XAU/USD closes above that level, it could push XAU/USD towards $4,100 ahead of testing the $4,200 mark.
However, failure to hold above $4,050 would leave Gold vulnerable to fall towards $4,000 before potentially challenging the October 28 low near $3,886.
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