SGX Nifty Indicates: Stocks in Asia followed equities on Wall Street by rising marginally after US inflation cooled ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later Wednesday.
If you recall last week I had mentioned, “…. It is therefore obvious that retail money needs to come back big time for the markets to get into a bullish stride once again.” Another redeeming factor has been the slow but steady recovery in the midcap space that was missing for a while. While we need to really see more momentum kicking in to take these indices higher, the trends seen last week has lent some color to the sentiment. Mid-cap index is closer to the breakout zone and should be checked first for some market action.
Nifty Week Technical Report: In the last week’s article, I had alerted readers about the risk that was present (mainly from global factors) for the trends. In fact, an earlier letter was titled ‘The Narrative Is Shifting’ where I had mentioned that the undertone of the market was changing ever so slightly. I followed that up with another alert in the article a couple of weeks ago, ‘Targets Met And More’, where I had mentioned that the Nifty topping time zone as Sept. 13. Of course, these were alerts for those with long positions to be vigilant, and in the last week’s letter I had also mentioned that in the event the market turned a bit soft, long-holders should lighten up on their commitments. On the make-it-or-break-it matter, the market seems to have chosen to, well, not make it so far.
Event of the week was the all-time new high reached by the Bank Nifty. A couple of months ago, the Bank Nifty was trailing the Nifty by a goodly margin but has made great strides to pip the Nifty to the tape of hitting new highs. That is a remarkable comeback by the financial sector and here the effort was shared in good measure by private and public sector banks as well as financial stocks.
Sensex / Nifty Future Forecast: India’s stock benchmarks closed little unchanged in a volatile session as gains in capital goods and industrials stocks were offset by losses in energy, oil and gas and metals.
Nifty Weekly Forecast: Even though no one wanted it, everyone was waiting for it! The dip, I mean. Friday’s trading confirmed the fears that most were harbouring, that the market was ‘due’ for a decline. As though it was some train that had got delayed or something. So, when it showed, everyone was, like, ‘I told you so’. Now, will come the next set of comments, predictions, new questions etc. But before all that, let’s just take a look at what has transpired so far during the week. The first chart details the intra-week move.