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The Indian rupee (INR) fell sharply against the US dollar (USD) today after the shock exit of RBI governor Urjit Patel, who announced his resignation on Monday. The rupee was trading at 72.46 against the US dollar, down 1.5%, as compared to yesterday’s close of 71.32. The dollar also gained other currencies, putting further pressure on the rupee. The abrupt resignation of RBI chief has raised worries about further outflows from Indian markets. The counting of votes in five states began today from 8 am. Early trends indicate a tight race between BJP and Congress in Madhya Pradesh while Congress ahead in Rajasthan.
INR vs USD – Here are 5 updates from forex markets
1) Forex advisory firm IFA Global in a note said that Urjit Patel’s resignation has “dampened risk sentiment onshore as questions arise again about friction between the government and the RBI. Foreign portfolio investors are likely to take this extremely negatively and we could see a sell off in debt and equities.” The Sensex fell nearly 500 points in early trade, further dampening the sentiment.
2)The swings in global crude prices and the backdrop of global financial turmoil amid concerns over US-China trade war has heightened the volatility in the rupee.
3) Commenting on the impact of RBI governor’s surprise exit on markets, Lakshmi Iyer, head of fixed income at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management said, “We will see a knee-jerk sell-off. If the declines come with a bad poll outcome for the BJP, we may see a big drop.” Market veteran Ajay Bagga said that longer-term, the government will need to be cautious of outflows from overseas investors. “A lot of communication will be needed to foreign institutional investors to give them confidence,” he said.
4) India’s current account deficit in July-September to its widest in over four years, according to data released on Friday. But the current account deficit is likely to ease after the recent sharp drop in global crude prices, easing some pressure of the rupee, analysts said. The rupee had fallen about 14% in the first nine months of this year but has recovered since hitting a record low of 74.48 against the US dollar on the back of the drop in oil prices.
5) An index that measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies has jumped 5.5% so far this year as investors pile on the dollar as a safe haven bet amid worries over global growth. Adding to turmoil in global forex markets, the British pound tumbled to its lowest against the US dollar since April 2017 after Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal with the European Union, panicking investors about deepening political uncertainty in Britain.
