Nifty in Technical Analysis, July 22, 2023: हम 23 मार्च के निचले स्तर के बाद से जारी दृढ़ तेजी के रुझान को देख सकते हैं। मैं 16 candles गिनता हूँ जो पूरी तरह से हरी हैं और किसी भी संदेह का संकेत भी नहीं देतीं। चालू सप्ताह में भी ऐसा ही बना हुआ है। इसे देखते हुए, हमें एहसास होता है कि सारी शंकाएं केवल हमारे दिमाग में थीं और बाजार में कभी नहीं थीं और अभी भी नहीं हैं!
Nifty Weekly Technical Forecast: It can be noted that, after a rigorous start, the Nifty (निफ्टी) was more in to ranging forthe balance of the week. This is also quite in line withthe expectations that the market in May would range, albeit at a higher level. So far, that is the case.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Price Forecast: On Friday, prices rose sharply and the futures open interest dropped significantly in Nifty and somewhat in Bank Nifty, indicating a rally driven by short-covering. The put-call ratio on the monthly series increased in both Nifty and Bank Nifty due to aggressive put shorting. This action is expected to continue, providing enough fuel for rally attempts during the truncated week ahead.
Nifty Future Analysis: The week gone by was only slightly different from the earlier one. The market still hasn’t gone anywhere yet. Monday started with the same kind of dullness of the last week, but the market quickly made amends by moving up on the next two sessions. Just as traders were getting ready to play the long side, the bears came right back, slammed the door in the face of the bulls, particularly in the Bank Nifty. FII were buyers earlier in the week, but turned net sellers once again.
What if the upmove doesn’t occur? Well, in that case, the lower range (horizontal arrow) should be used as a stop. There aren’t any closer stops. As a bearish signal, this can be meaningful but that is something that I would prefer to deal with in case the occasion comes up. For now, I don’t expect that to happen.
If you recall last week I had mentioned, “…. It is therefore obvious that retail money needs to come back big time for the markets to get into a bullish stride once again.” Another redeeming factor has been the slow but steady recovery in the midcap space that was missing for a while. While we need to really see more momentum kicking in to take these indices higher, the trends seen last week has lent some color to the sentiment. Mid-cap index is closer to the breakout zone and should be checked first for some market action.