Silver Rally Continues! Neal Bhai Targets ₹1.60 Lakh After Stunning 40% Gain

Silver price has gained nearly 40% in 2025, driven by its dual demand as a safe-haven and industrialmetal. Neal Bhai forecasts further price increases, with longterm support levels and stronginvestor interest evident from rising ETF assets and institutional purchases.

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Silver has emerged as one of the best-performing asset classes of 2025, rallying nearly 40 percent year-to-date (YTD), supported by its unique dual demand as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal. Neal Bhai says the surge is a result of strong global factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions and robust industrial usage.

MCX silver rate rose 0.4% to above ₹1,25,111 per kg, after touching an all-time high of ₹1,26,730 on Sept 8.

Price Outlook

Neal Bhai maintains a positive medium- to long-term view on silver. The brokerage notes that after successfully achieving earlier domestic price targets of ₹1,12,100 and ₹1,25,000, silver is now expected to move toward ₹1,30,000, followed by ₹1,60,000, assuming USDINR at 89.

On COMEX, prices could test $47 first and then $50. MOFSL places long-term support levels between ₹1,04,000 and ₹1,08,000 and recommends a “buy-on-dips” strategy over a 12–15 month horizon, given the favorable risk-reward setup.

Silver has delivered nearly 20 percent annualized returns over the last three years, outperforming most asset classes.

Silver and its importance

The brokerage highlighted that silver has shown an 81 percent correlation with gold and a 75 percent correlation with copper this year, underscoring its hybrid nature — part precious metal, part industrial commodity. Industrial demand already accounts for 59 percent of total usage, with solar PV alone contributing around 17 percent. Also, the explosive growth in Silver ETFs, with assets under management (AUM) rising more than tenfold in just 2.5 years, suggests sustained investor appetite.

Silver’s strategic relevance has been underscored by the US government’s recent decision to add it to its critical minerals list. This move could act as a major tailwind for procurement and investment demand in the United States. Furthermore, silver has been in a structural supply deficit for five consecutive years, as global industrial and investment demand continues to outstrip mine production. Also, its growing institutional participation, as the Saudi Arabian Central Bank has started purchasing silver ETFs, signals strong confidence in the metal’s long-term prospects.

Macro Tailwinds

Neal Bhai says silver prices are supported by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties under the Trump administration, and the IMF’s upward revision of global growth forecasts. Inflation near central bank targets adds investor comfort, while expectations of a 25-basis-point US rate cut in September could further boost precious metals.

China’s Role: China remains a major driver of silver demand. Its GDP growth holds steady at 5 percent, and PV module exports hit 127 GW in H1 2025, significantly increasing silver use for solar applications. With solar PV accounting for a rising share of industrial demand, China’s momentum is key.

Demand-Supply Dynamics: Industrial demand is expected to contribute nearly 60 percent of silver production in 2025, led by solar, EVs, and electronics. Jewellery demand, however, may fall 6 percent. Neal Bhai projects the market will stay in deficit for the fifth straight year despite a 5 percent rise in recycling.

Investment Flows: Silver continues to attract institutional money. ETFs and ETPs posted strong inflows in 2025, with the Saudi Central Bank investing $40 million. Domestic imports topped 3,000 tonnes in H1, while Russia plans $535 million worth of state purchases over three years.

Valuation Gap with Gold

Neal Bhai draws attention to the gold-to-silver ratio, which currently stands at around 87, well above its long-term average of about 60. Historically, such wide valuation gaps have often preceded major silver rallies as the ratio tends to normalize over time. The brokerage believes this presents an attractive entry point for investors looking to benefit from a potential catch-up rally in silver relative to gold.

FAQs on Silver Price Outlook 2025