This is a daily candlestick chart of Copper futures on MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) showing the price movement from August 2024 to April 2025. The price is currently at 824.30 INR per kg, down by 3.55% as of April 30, 2025. Let’s analyze the chart for potential buy/sell levels, targets and stop loss and determine whether to go long (buy) or short (sell).
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MCX Copper Chart Analysis:
- Trend: The price shows a strong uptrend from December 2024 to early April 2025, peaking around 900 INR. However, a sharp decline started in mid-April, dropping to the current level of 824.30 INR.
- Key Levels:
- Support: Around 824 INR (a psychological level and recent consolidation zone in December 2024).
- Resistance: Around 850 INR (recent highs before the drop) and 880 INR (a stronger resistance from the prior uptrend).
- Current Position: The price has broken below a key support level near 840 INR and is testing the 820 INR support. This suggests bearish momentum, but the 815 level may act as a potential bounce point.
- Momentum: The sharp drop indicates strong selling pressure, but the proximity to support could lead to a reversal if buyers step in.
Copper Trading Strategy:
Given the current price action, I’ll outline both a buy and a sell scenario, as the price is at a critical junction.
Buy Scenario (Reversal Play):
- Entry: Buy at 820 INR (current support level) if the price shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern like a hammer or engulfing pattern on the daily chart).
- Target: 850 INR (recent resistance, ~3.1% upside).
- Stop Loss: 810 INR (below the support, ~1.1% downside risk).
- Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3 (9 INR risk for 26 INR reward).
Sell Scenario (Continuation Play):
- Entry: Sell at 827 INR if the price breaks below this support with strong bearish confirmation (e.g., a large red candle or increased volume on the break).
- Target: 810—800 INR (next major support from November 2024, ~2.9% downside).
- Stop Loss: 835 INR (above the recent swing high, ~1.2% upside risk).
- Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.4 (10 INR risk for 24 INR reward).
Buy or Sell at This Level?
- The price is at a critical support level (810 INR). If this support holds and we see a bullish reversal pattern, it could be a good opportunity to buy for a bounce to 842 INR. However, if the support breaks with strong bearish momentum, the sell scenario becomes more likely, targeting 797 INR.
- Recommendation: At this exact level, I lean toward selling due to the recent breakdown below 837 INR and the strong bearish momentum. However, I’d wait for confirmation of the break below 810 INR before entering a short position. If you’re risk-averse, wait for a bullish reversal signal to buy.
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