The first look of the US annualised GDP is expected to show a 0.4% growth in Q1 2025, down from a robust 2.4% expansion in the final quarter of 2024. Goldman Sachs economists expect a negative 0.2% growth.
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US tariffs
The expected significant slowdown in the US growth could be attributed to a likely import surge as US firms stocked up on inventory to get ahead of the US tariffs.
If the world’s largest economy shows an unexpected contraction, it would refuel recession fears and bring back bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts to the table, reviving the US Dollar (USD) downtrend. This, in turn, would lift the Gold price back toward record highs.
However, a smaller-than-expected cooldown in the US economy growth could provide a brief relief to broader markets and the US Dollar (USD), allowing Gold sellers to build on their corrective downside.
However, traders will remain cautious and refrain from creating fresh directional positions in the Gold price heading toward Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, limiting any reaction in Gold price.
US NFP data
The US NFP data will help markets assess if there has been any material impact of US tariffs on the labor market.
Markets will also scrutinize the quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data that will be released alongside the GDP figures.
In the meantime, the Greenback defends gains as markets take stock of the recent tariffs headlines. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday to ease the impact of his auto tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump has adjusted the 25% tariffs on auto parts, which were set to take effect on May 3.
Markets also find some consolation from chatter surrounding progress on trade deals between the US and some of its Asian trading partners.
Gold Price Forecast For Today
Gold price has defended the three-week-long rising channel support so far this week, currently testing the water underneath.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holds above the midline, cushioning any downside in Gold price.
To confirm a downside break of the rising channel pattern, Gold price must find acceptance below the rising trendline support, now at $3,351, on a daily closing basis.
The next support aligns at the $3,300 round level, below which the $3,260 demand area will be tested.
A sustained break below the latter will put the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,224 to the test, followed by the 50-day SMA at $3,075.
Conversely, Gold buyers must find a firm foothold above the channel support-turned-resistance at $3,362 to revive the uptrend toward the $3,407 static resistance.
A sustained recovery will target the $3,442 and the record high of $3,500 thereafter.
✅ Disclaimer: Goldsilverreports.com provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
