Gold and silver miners: Grim price action in the metals, and more be yet to come (looking at overnight price action, in all likehood we‘re done with shakeouts) – gold and silver usually do better once the waiting for taper is over.
The Bernanke experience is the right one to compare taper prospects to, but the Fed will have a much harder time mopping up the excess liquidity than it did in 2018 – commercial bank credit creation isn‘t still there to make up for lost central bank purchases. Gold is getting inordinarily scared even as inflation isn‘t showing signs of retreating and real rates remain deeply negative – only inflation expectations have been jawboned.
As neither miners to gold ratio nor TIPS signal panic, the only question is when the metals would stabilize and whether a fresh washout would occur or not. My view is that we‘re way closer to the pain‘s end than to its June beginning.
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Gold Fundamental Overview
Gold is having a difficult time staging a convincing rebound following the steep drop witnessed in the early Asian session. With the latest data from the US confirming the improving labour market conditions, the Gold pair started to edge lower and was last seen losing 1.5% on a daily basis at $1,736.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Monday that the number of job openings on the last business day of June reached a new series-high of 10.1 million, surpassing the market expectation of 9.28 million. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index turned positive on the day and is currently posting small daily gains at 92.90.