Crude Oil prices declined nearly 1% at the start of the trading week as the resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and expectations of another OPEC+ production increase heightened concerns about growing global supply.
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Crude Oil Dropped
Brent crude futures fell 63 cents to $69.50 per barrel by early Monday trading, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped 65 cents to $65.07 per barrel. The declines reversed most of Friday’s gains, when both benchmarks had reached their highest levels since late July.
Kurdish Exports Return After Two-Year Halt
Iraq resumed crude oil exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region on Saturday morning, ending a suspension that lasted more than two and a half years. The restart came after Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies reached an interim agreement following intensive U.S.-backed negotiations.
The Iraq-Turkey pipeline began flowing oil at 6 AM local time on Saturday, with Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirming the resumption. Initial flows are expected to reach 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day, with the potential to eventually rise to 230,000 barrels per day.
“The operations commenced at a high pace and complete flow without recording any technical problems,” Iraq’s oil ministry stated. The agreement allows Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization to receive 190,000 barrels daily for export and another 50,000 barrels for domestic consumption.
OPEC+ Eyes November Output Increase
Adding pressure to oil prices, OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November when it meets online on October 5. The planned increase would match October’s already scheduled hike as the Saudi Arabia-led alliance continues its strategy to reclaim global market share.
“Rising oil prices encourage the group to try to further regain market share,” according to three sources familiar with the discussions. Since April, OPEC+ has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, representing approximately 2.4% of world demand.timesofindia.
The potential supply additions come as the International Energy Agency has warned that global oil markets face an “untenable” surplus, with inventories potentially rising by 2.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025.