MCX Gold Trading Tips + Weekly Recommendation
MCX Live Gold Weekly Reports & Recommendation: MCX Gold June Buy between 31250 – 31150 , Stop Loss (CBSL) – 30869, Weekly Target – 31555 —— 31833
Read More : MCX Silver July Weekly Report & Recommendation
Bullion rises on weak Consumer Sentiment, Jobless Claims boost Fed easing bets
The week ended with a softer than expected University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for September, while 5-Year inflation expectations surged. Friday’s data along with Tuesday’s -911K payroll revision, and an increase in people filing for unemployment benefits in the US, outweighed inflation data released during the week.
The data has cemented the case for the first rate cut to come next week at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17. Three weeks ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech opened the door for interest rate adjustments while acknowledging that the labor market was cooling faster than expected.
Next week, the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points and clarify future policy through the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Geopolitical tensions are supporting higher Gold prices. US President Donald Trump said that he is running out of patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose “very hard” sanctions on the country.
Daily market movers: Gold remains underpinned despite rising US yields
- The UoM Consumer Sentiment poll showed that Americans are growing less optimistic about the economy, as the Consumer Sentiment Index dipped from 58.2 to 55.4. Inflation expectations for one year were unchanged at 4.8%, while for five years they rose from 3.5% to 3.9%.
- Banks like Deutsche Bank expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in all three remaining meetings this year, meaning that the fed funds rate will reach the 3.50%-3.75% range before the new year.
- US consumer inflation held steady, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining below the 3% mark. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 6 climbed to their highest level in nearly four years, underscoring persistent weakness in the labor market.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, recovers, up 0.10% at 97.59.
- US Treasury yields are surging, with the 10-year Treasury note up four basis points (bps) to 4.068%. US real yields — calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the nominal yield — rose nearly four-and-a-half basis points to 1.728% at the time of writing.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down its annual benchmark payrolls to -911K for March 2025, exceeding economists’ estimates of -682K.
- The Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool shows odds for a 25 bps of Fed easing at 91% on September 17, and a slim chance of 9% for a 50 bps rate cut.
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