They expect the Fed will raise rates by a quarter percentage point at its Dec. 18-19 meeting while dialing back the number of moves next year to two, in March and September, from the three hikes economists saw in September. Median responses in the Dec. 7-11 poll also anticipate one additional hike in mid-2020 when the rate would peak in this tightening cycle at a target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent.
US
US Markets Decline on Trade News, Dollar Climbs
Most US stocks fell on Thursday, with small caps leading declines, as trade tensions continued to weigh on financial markets. The dollar jumped after the European Central Bank sounded a cautious note on growth.
Slowing Demand and a Supply Glut to Drain Oil’s Gains in 2019: Reuters Poll
A survey of 38 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude LCOc1 to average $74.50 a barrel in 2019, lower than the $76.88 outlook last month. The poll predicted Brent would average $73.20 in 2018, mostly in line with the $73 average for the global benchmark so far this year.
Dollar Pressured as Fed Officials Caution about Global Growth, Yen Firms
Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – The U.S. currency has enjoyed a strong run this year thanks to the Fed’s steady policy tightening on the back of a robust economy and rising wage pressures. A fourth rate hike for this year is expected next month and policy makers had indicated two more by June 2019.
UK, EU Agree Tentative Brexit Deal on Financial-Services: The Times
British and European negotiators have reached tentative agreement on all aspects of a future partnership on services, as well as the exchange of data, the British newspaper reported, citing government sources.
ECB’s Nowotny: We Expect Positive Economic Outlook To Continue But Risks Exist
ECB’s Nowotny: Asked About Latest GDP Figures, Has Not Seen Anything That Would Require An Adjustment Of Monetary Policy Outlook
U.S. Plans More China Tariffs If Trump-Xi Meeting Fails, Sources Say
The United States is preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports by early December if talks next month between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war.