After cutting interest rates by more than a percentage point, Federal Reserve officials are now wondering where to stop – and finding there’s more disagreement than ever.
In the past year or so, prescriptions for where rates should end up have diverged by the most since at least 2012, when US central bankers started publishing their estimates. That’s feeding into an unusually public split over whether to deliver another cut next week, and what comes after that.
After the unexpected 50 basis point rate cut in September, market participants have turned their attention to the performance of the US economy to gauge the likelihood of further cuts. This focus aligns with the Federal Reserve’s shift toward monitoring the labor market, although inflation, especially excluding food and energy costs, is proving more stubborn than before.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to lower interest rates this week after holding borrowing costs at a two-decade high for more than a year.
“Strong growth earlier this year should ensure the economy creates jobs at a robust pace into year-end,” economists wrote in a note. “The composition of job gains will provide clues on which sectors will drive hiring in 2019. As the Fed continues to tighten policy, the housing and auto sectors will likely get hit by rising interest rates.”
Gold Silver Reports (GSR) — “Our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ Powell said in the text of a speech to be delivered to a housing conference in Washington on Thursday. “In fact, by many national-level measures, our labor market is very strong.’’
Job creation for September fell to its lowest level in a year though the unemployment rate dropped to a point not seen in nearly 50 years, according to Labor Department figures released Friday.