US-Iran conflict may spike India’s crude prices and fuel inflation

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran over stalled nuclear negotiations have once again heightened geopolitical risks in global crude markets. Recent warnings from US leadership about possible military action after Iran allegedly crossed key American “red lines” triggered a sharp rally in crude prices, with WTI jumping more than 5% as markets reacted to the possibility of a broader confrontation. This renewed uncertainty has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions and their impact on major crude-importing economies, particularly India.

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Crude Oil Technical Analysis: OPEC+ Needs to Act

Crude Oil prices could be set for a bear cycle as Donald Trump is set to become the next US President in January 2025. Trump has already committed in the runup to the presidential election that regulation and permitting will become less strict. At the same time, funds allocated to green energy will be diverted towards shale Oil and fossil fuel projects. That means structural additional supply is set to be released in 2025, on top of OPEC+’s foreseen supply normalization.

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