After rising from 7,500 to over 18,000, the Nifty has been consolidating since mid-October 2021. Looking at the fall of the last 30 days, it seems like the Nifty could further correct from present levels.
Historically it has been observed that February tends to be volatile, especially post Budget. It is possible for the Nifty to fall up to 15,800 level. However, the long-term structure of the Indian stock market is intact. We remain bullish in 2022 and beyond. Focus on adding quality stocks in the current fall. ~ Amar Ambani, Senior President and Head – Institutional Equities, YES SECURITIES
Nifty likely to be in a trading range of 16200-17500
“The trading theme for the day revolves around the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Well, this headwind could further accelerate to the biggest major market worry across globe: inflation. Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 16200-17500 zone. Dalal Street could witness a major bust if Nifty slips its December 2021 lows at 16410 mark.”
- Nifty resistance at 17800 for this week’s F&O expiry
- Realinace, HDFC, Infosys top Sensex losers
- Nifty Open Higher; Banking, I.T. Stocks Rise
- Bank Nifty Jumps 0.8%
- Nifty Trading Spot Band Between 17230-17650
- Sensex, Nifty Open Little Changed; Tata Steel, Power Grid Advance
- Nifty Options Data Show 17100—18000 Trading Zone
Market participants wary of political tensions between Russia-Ukraine
“Monday’s market action is mirroring the fall in global markets last Friday. Global markets are worried about the fallout of political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to major disruptions in global energy supply chains.
This development will almost certainly precipitate stiff sanctions by the USA against Russia, which could further dampen sentiment. In addition, it is almost certain that the US-Fed will start raising rates as early as March, with upto 7 rate hikes in 2022. The US-Fed will also stop easing in March 2022, which implies that their balance sheet will start declining from April 2022.
This will cause a squeeze in liquidity conditions, in both supply and price. All this has made market participants wary, and they have started closing open positions and cutting leverage, which is causing a selloff in the markets.”
Nifty 200 DEMA support placed at 16,690
“Nifty needs to reclaim 17,000 as soon as possible for any change in trend. 200 DEMA support is placed at 16,690, while 16,800 is the nearest breakdown level. Both long and short traders are advised to stay lights until this death zone of 16,800-17,000 is navigated safely.”
Today Nifty support at 16500, Resistance at 17500
“Nifty finds support around 16500 while 17500 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty finds support around 36650 while 37650 will act as resistance.”
Weekly Strong Resistance at 16950-17000
“The near term trend of Nifty is sharply down. The overall negative chart pattern and a decisive downside breakout of the important support could indicate continuation of down trend for the market ahead. The initial downside targets to be watched around 16500 levels and next is at 16200, which could be achieved in the next couple of weeks. Any attempt of pullback rally could find strong resistance around 16950-17000 levels.”
Bonds To Gain As RBI Cancels Weekly Auction
Indian bonds are likely to gain after the central bank canceled a weekly debt auction. Traders will also asses higher local retail inflation and U.S. yields
- India’s retail inflation breached the central bank’s 6% tolerance limit for the first time in seven months, an increase that is unlikely to prompt the growth-focused central bank to raise interest rates
- Consumer prices rose 6.01% in January from a year earlier, the Statistics Ministry said in a statement on Monday. That’s nearly in line with the 6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 40 economists and the highest reading since June.
- USD/INR rose 0.3% to 75.6013 on Monday
- 10-year yields fell 3bps to 6.67%
- Global funds sell net Rs 4,250 crore of India stocks Monday: NSE
- They sold Rs 149 crore of sovereign bonds under limits available to foreign investors, and withdrew Rs 195 crore of corporate debt
- State-run banks sold Rs 2,000 crore of sovereign bonds on Feb. 14: CCIL data. Foreign banks bought Rs 2,530 crore of bonds.
Religare Challenges Fraud Classification Of Religare Finvest By Lenders
Religare Enterprises informed that its subsidiary Religare Finvest received communication from RBI advising restructuring of the company cannot be implemented with Religare Enterprises as its promoter.
- RBI, in its communication dated Feb. 10, had reasoned that this restriction was because the Religare Enterprises has been declared as ‘fraud’ exposure by lenders.
- Religare Enterprises added that Religare Finvest had represented to the central bank regarding wrongful classification of its account as ‘fraud’. The company is awaiting the response from RBI and is in the process of taking suitable measures.
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