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Natural Gas Crash 150 to 142.60
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U.S. natural gas futures inched up on Tuesday after hitting a ten-month low in the previous session, as high LNG export flows countered pressure from mild weather forecasts and ample supplies.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery
NG1!
on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.72 per million British thermal units. The contract fell on Monday to its lowest since November 4.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.6 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
However, Cheniere Energy’s
LNG
Corpus Christi LNG plant in south Texas was pulling half its usual amount of natural gas on Tuesday, according to LSEG data, suggesting one of its plants could be down.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 131 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the 142 CDDs estimated on Monday. The norm for this time of year is 135 CDDs. CDDs, which are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 13 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended August 15. That was smaller than the 22-bcf build analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with an increase of 29 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 35 bcf over the 2020 to 2024 period.
“While Thursday’s EIA storage will likely offer a smaller than normal injection that would shrink the surplus by about 7 bcf according to our forecast, a major swing away from the current supply overhang of about 175 bcf appears unlikely when looking toward the end of next month,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Florida.
“But, we are still considering developments in the coming month capable of shrinking the surplus significantly and the possibility of storm-related disrupted production through the GOM alleys comes to mind as well as a continued near-record flow of exports.”
In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected no disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Fernand, which developed south-southeast of Bermuda on Saturday, is expected to continue weakening and will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or early Wednesday before dissipating on Thursday.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 bcfd in July.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.1 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week and 103.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Monday.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials discussed potential energy deals on the sidelines of recent Ukraine peace talks, including possible Russian purchases of U.S. equipment for sanctioned LNG projects, such as Arctic LNG 2, five sources said.