Gold Price Forecast : Gold (XAU/USD) price kicks off the week on the back foot, trading with a negative tone on Monday as diminished safe-haven demand and improved risk appetite weigh on the precious metal. Hopes for progress in diplomatic efforts to ease Russia-Ukraine peace talks tensions, alongside firmer equity markets, have curbed demand for bullion, with investors shifting toward riskier assets.
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At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $3,345 during the American trading session, down nearly 1.50% on the day, after last week’s buyers repeatedly failed to clear the $3,400 psychological hurdle.
There’s a cautious sense of optimism after fresh diplomatic moves over the weekend. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Still, any downside in Gold may be limited due to firm expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). These expectations keep the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields subdued, offering potential support to Gold.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 basis-point cut next month, reflecting growing confidence in a more accommodative policy stance amid signs of a cooling labor market.
Technical Outlook: Russia-Ukraine peace talks, key support at $3,347 in focus
Gold (Yellow Metal) is trading under pressure on Monday, extending losses after failing to break above the key $3,400 psychological barrier last week.
On the daily chart, the metal is encountering selling pressure at the rising trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. This trendline was briefly broken to the downside in late July, but the lack of follow-through left the broader bullish structure intact. The current rejection from this area suggests that bulls are struggling to regain control.
Immediate support is seen at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,350. A decisive break below this level could expose the 100-day SMA at $3,292, followed by stronger horizontal support near $3,250.
On the upside, $3,400 remains the first hurdle for buyers, with a sustained break above opening the door toward the all-time high around $3,500.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to the neutral 50 level, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintains a slight bullish bias, though narrowing histogram bars suggest that buying pressure is beginning to fade.
Gold: Await clarity – OCBC
There are still confusion over US tariffs on 1-kg and 100-oz Gold bar imports from Switzerland. Last seen at 3357 level, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact
“Gold was initially exempted from tariffs (back in Apr) but the letter from customs and border protection agency (which was seen by FT) had reclassified this one kilo Gold bar import from Switzerland under a custom code that is subjected to 39% tariff, instead of being tariff-free. Subsequently there was a report from Trump administration quoting an official to suggest that it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of Gold bars shouldn’t face tariffs.”
“According to the official, the administration intends to post an executive order in the near future to clarify what it called misinformation about the tariffing of Gold and other specialty products. As of now, Swiss refiners have stopped sending kilobar Gold to US, pending clarification, which should come soon. Interim confusion may see heightened volatility.”
“Yellow metal slipped, in response to the report quoting a White House official. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI shows signs of falling. Support at 3350 (21, 50 DMAs), 3290 levels. Resistance at 3440, 3500 (2025 all time high).”
Sorce – Fxstreet