Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – Employment is expected to rise 15,000 in June, following back-to-back monthly declines, the first since late 2014. Job gains have lost momentum in recent months, and we’ll be watching to see if that trend continues or turns a bit more positive again.
The goods sector saw sizeable job losses in May, and some bounce back in construction and manufacturing wouldn’t be a surprise.
Services employment has been volatile as well.
Health care recorded its biggest drop in five years, while other sectors were mixed.
The oscillation between part-time and full-time jobs is expected to continue with the latter set to turn positive in June.
Meantime, the jobless rate should hold steady at 5.8%, the lowest in over 40 years, though there’s some upside risk if the labour force jumps.
Wage growth rocketed to a nine-year high of 3.9% in May, but we look for a modest pullback to 3.8% as gains were solid in June 2017.
Note that June jobs have beaten expectations for seven of the past nine years, suggesting there could be upside to our call. – Neal Bhai Reports
