Trump’s return: There are many small reasons but three big ones

Trump India-US trade talks

The US elections are over and the outcome is an uncontestable victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Trump got 50.4% of the national vote, a margin of more than 2 percentage points over Kamala Harris. This signals a decisive victory by recent US election standards. He won all seven swing states and got about the same number of votes in 2024 as in 2020 (Harris got 10 million fewer than Joe Biden had that year).

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Trump’s policies are likely to increase inflation risks

XAUUSD

“From last week’s record high, Gold (XAU/USD) had thus fallen by around $140. Selling pressure was caused by a significantly stronger US dollar and a sharp rise in US bond yields. In previous weeks, neither of these factors had been a hindrance for Gold. However, the extent of the USD appreciation and the rise in yields were apparently too strong this time to be ignored by Gold.”

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​US natural gas prices are side-lined

​US natural gas prices are side-lined

Natural Gas (NG) Outlook: The recovery from Monday’s 2.665 low, made marginally above the October low at 2.636, is ongoing with US natural gas prices treading water at present. For another upside thrust to unfold, a rise above Tuesday’s high at 2.903 would need to be seen. If so, the 20 June high at 3.016 would be back in play. Further up lie the early to late October highs at 3.081-to-3.141.

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