XAU/USD price rebounds sharply on Thursday after falling to a one-month low of $3,268 on Wednesday, pressured by stronger-than-expected US data and the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged. However, safe-haven demand has since resurfaced, with buyers stepping in to drive a swift recovery.
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As of European trading hours, the yellow metal is hovering near $3,306, up nearly 0.95% on the day. The rebound is supported by rising trade tensions ahead of the August 1 deadline and a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) from a two-month high, helping the metal reclaim the key $3,300 level.
US President Donald Trump is expected to announce final tariffs on several countries that have yet to reach a deal later on Thursday. The tariffs are set to take effect Friday, August 1, keeping market sentiment fragile.
On Wednesday, President Trump unveiled a series of aggressive trade measures, starting with a 25% tariff on all Indian imports, citing national security concerns over India’s growing defense and energy ties with Russia.
He also raised tariffs on Brazilian imports by 40%, bringing the total effective duty to 50%, with selective exemptions on products such as orange juice, fertilizers, and aircraft. Additionally, a 50% tariff was introduced on copper-based products, including pipes and electrical wiring, though raw copper, commodity, and concentrates were excluded.
Amid renewed tariff threats, some optimism emerged on Wednesday as the United States (US) and South Korea finalized a trade agreement just before the deadline.
Under the deal, the US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean imports, significantly lower than the previously threatened 25%. In return, South Korea pledged $350 billion in investments in America. So far, the US has finalized trade framework deals with the European Union (EU) and Japan, both of which include strategic investment commitments and tariff alignment across key sectors.
In addition, bilateral agreements have been reached with the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Meanwhile, a 90-day trade truce with China is set to expire on August 12, with no agreement or extension yet announced.
Looking ahead, traders will shift focus to key US economic data due later on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The calendar features the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – along with the headline PCE Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims.
Today Technical Analysis for XAU/USD (Gold)
On the intraday chart, XAU/USD is trading in a sideways range after reaching an all-time high of $3,500.14 on April 22, 2025. Since then, prices have been consolidating between $3,242 and $3,444, showing no strong directional trend.
The $3,242 level remains the first key support, which has previously acted as a strong demand zone. A breakdown below this could expose the next support around $3,155. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $3,350, which lines up with the middle Bollinger Band and also serves as the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, reflecting neutral to mildly bearish momentum, with further room to fall before entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is extremely low at 11.80, suggesting a weak trend and overall market indecision.
This implies Gold may continue to trade range-bound in the near term unless a decisive breakout above $3,350 or a breakdown below $3,242 or $3,222 takes place.
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