Spot Gold Price Forecast: The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same, with any recovery attempts likely to be short-lived as long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bearish.
Commodities
Downside Momentum likely to Accelerate Gold Below $2600
Gold Outlook: “The momentum break experienced on election day typically marks the end of such moves. But if that is the case, what can we expect from here? The melt-up has created a notable margin of safety for macro fund positions, which now hold significant paper profits on their extremely bloated length. Large scale selling activity from CTAs will only kick off below $2600/oz.”
Gold prices fell to a one-week low in line with US Inflation data
Safe-haven gold prices may get some support from the slight decline in the US dollar (USD) along with the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Traders may also avoid placing aggressive bets ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. In addition, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released on Thursday and Friday should provide fresh momentum to Yellow Metal.
Gold Investors Await Fed Policy Announcements
Gold Investors And Fed Policy: The US economic calendar will feature Retail Sales data for August on Tuesday. Investors expect a monthly increase of 0.2% following the 1% growth recorded in July. A negative print could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help Yellow Metal edge higher. Nevertheless, the market reaction is likely to remain short-lived, with investors refraining from taking large positions ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
Gold in the last leg of the 5th wave ABC
Following up from our last update titled “Are Bulls Teasing Bears?”, we are witnessing an exhilarating finish to the week as gold makes a remarkable $100 jump since our last analysis. This thrilling surge forms part of the final leg, Wave 5, of the proposed ending diagonal structure. True to Elliott Wave principles, each wave within this structure is subdividing into three smaller waves, ABC.
China’s crude oil reserves fell significantly in July 2024
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for crude oil demand slightly downwards this year. This was due to a significant slowdown in demand in the second quarter, particularly in the emerging economies, where the annual increase was the lowest since 2020, which was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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