MCX Gold Needs to Trade Above Rs 48120 For Upside [04-02-2022]

MCX Gold (Yellow Metal)Reports: The Bank of England raised its key interest rates at its regular monetary policy meeting. Meantime, the European Central Bank held its rates steady butsoon could follow the US in increasing interestrates.

The important U.S. Labor Department employment situation report is due out Friday morning. That report is also expected to be downbeat, with its key non-farm payrolls number expected to come in at only 150,000 jobs in January. This will give further clear trends for gold. We don’t expect gold to trade higher in the short term as a rate hike in March will give headwinds in the form of rising US dollar. We are bullish on gold in the medium term after the US Fed started its cycle of rate hike.

In MCX, Gold (Yellow Metal) is stuck in the range of 47550——48350 just as in COMEX it is stuck in the range of $1780—$1822. Gold has strong support around 47300 as it has made double bottom while resistance is around 48500—48750. Next week gold needs to sustain above 48120 for any upside move and if NFP comes lower than expected, we may see a temporary jump in gold prices.

However, as we have stated we don’t expect gold to give a breakout till March when interest rate hike is due from the US Fed. Silver, meanwhile, looks more vulnerable below 60000 as thrice it has managed to bounce from those levels in the vicinity of 2 months. We may see serious corrections below that level. On the daily chart, the trend looks weak and if gold breaches below $1675, then we may see selling pressure in silver getting amplified. Any longs in silver should be avoided at this point and short positions can be created if silver manages to close below 60000.

It was a volatile day for gold but today’s jobs data could make it even more volatile. US dollar weakness provided strong tailwinds but at the opening of the US market, there was strong selling pressure when gold dropped to $1788 before buyers stepped in and pushed prices above $1804. There was no evident reason for such a fall in opening trade of the US and we can see that gold has strong support at the bottom as buyers thought it was a good opportunity to go long when prices crashed below $1792. One of the reasons for the jittery in the opening trade would be the precision US military strike in Syria which killed the leader of ISIS.

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