MCX Crude oil August futures may slip to Rs 7500/bbl ahead of OPEC+ Meeting; Libyan Output Continues to Rise

WTI Crude oil futures saw the best week in nine and rose more than 4%, as tight supplies more than offset worries over an economic slowdown. Weak dollar index post the Fed meeting on expectations of less aggressive rate hikes coupled with better than expected inventory data aided the black gold. EIA crude oil inventories declined by 4.523 million barrels in the week ended 22nd July, the most in 8 weeks and four times more than forecasts for a 1.037 million barrel fall. 

Exports rose to a record 4.55 million barrels a day as WTI crude traded at a huge discount to Brent crude. US gasoline demand also increased 8.5% week-on-week, as lower prices helped drive the demand during the peak summer driving season. Sentiments were further boosted after Reuters reported that OPEC+ sources said the group will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September, with two OPEC+ sources saying a modest increase would be discussed. Meanwhile, Libyan output continues to rise amid ease in political unrest in the nation.

MCX Crude oil Forecast and Report

Oil might be under pressure for the week as weak manufacturing data from China and Japan for the month of July weighed on demand outlook, while investors closely watched developments in the middle east ahead of this week’s OPEC+ meeting. Oil rig counts, which is an early indicator of future production, rose above 600, while Libyan output was restored to pre-blockade levels. 

Two of the eight OPEC+ sources in a Reuters survey said a modest increase for September would be discussed on the 3rd August, while the rest said output would likely be held steady. We expect MCX Crude oil August futures to decline towards Rs.7,500 per bbl ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and bounce back post the meeting, if the cartel keeps output unchanged.

MCX Crude Oil Forecast
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