Gold Trading Forecast Today: gold has not usually reacted to real interest rates or risk on/risk off sentiment in the stock market. Gold has largely reacted to the US dollar only in last six months; any movement of gold is offset by movement in US dollar and yields.
Gold has ignored all other variables and has moved opposite of the US dollar’s price action. Gold investors just need to get past Wednesday’s FOMC meeting to find some new momentum. Money managers have lowered their long positions by 19345 contracts while short positions rose by 804 contracts. Gold’s net length now stands at 81,117 contracts, down nearly 20% from the previous week. Gold’s net length is currently at a three-month low. Last week Gold’s ETF saw outflows ending 14 week winning streak.
We recommend investors to wait for any long positions and for those investors looking for long term positions, they can start accumulating around 49300 levels.
We believe gold is expected to struggle in the near term because of the rising US dollar. Gold investors need to have patience because we are not going to see a V shaped recovery but very fragile recovery. Momentum for gold has shifted from neutral to bearish because of aggressive Fed stance and next support for Gold in COMEX comes at $1822.
Gold needs to breach above $1925 for momentum to shift from bearish to bullish. In MCX, support for gold comes at 50200 and 49500 while resistance is at 52100. Bears have the upper hand and we expect this week gold will remain under pressure. Range for this week would be 49300-51500 with bias on the lower side.
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2 thoughts on “Gold Trading Zone Rs 49300—51500 this week, Traders Wait For Long Positions”
It’s a decision day for the Fed, as a 50 basis point rate hike is likely a done deal. Moreover, while the PMs may record a short-term relief rally, their medium-term fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
The Fed is at a critical crossroad in its battle to fight inflation, raising rates by more than 25 bps for the first time in a decade and a half. For the dollar, it would mean a temporary “uncanny valley” – a “sell the fact” dip before it returns to the broad uptrend. In (almost) every scenario.