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Last week’s dismal Nonfarm Payrolls report sounded the alarms amongst Fed officials, who had previously struck a more hawkish tone but now are shifting to a more balanced one. Additionally, a slowdown of business activity in the services sector, as revealed by the ISM Services PMI, along with a contraction in the employment sub-component, suggests that there are some cracks in the labor market.
However, Fed doves are not out of the woods yet. The Prices Paid sub-component of the Services PMI rose to its highest level since November 2022. This and next week’s release of inflation figures on the consumer and producer sides will dictate whether the Fed remains more worried about inflation or shifts to achieve the maximum employment mandate.
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Technical outlook: Gold price moves sideways, hovers around $3,400
Gold price consolidates within the $3,380 – $3,400 range during Friday’s session, with neither buyers nor sellers committing to push prices outside those boundaries. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but flat.
If XAU/USD clears $3,400, the next area of interest would be June’s 16 peak at $3,452, followed by the record high of $3,500. Otherwise, Gold could test the confluence of the 50-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) between $3,355 and $3,348. On further weakness, Bullion could slide toward the 100-day SMA at $3,279, previously breaking $3,300.