Spot Gold Forecast Report: March Durable Goods Orders data and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April will be featured in the US economic docket on Tuesday. Ahead of Thursday’s first-quarter Gross Domestic Product report, however, investors are likely to ignore Tuesday’s data.
Markets expect the US economy to expand at an annualized rate of 1% in Q1 following the 6.9% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. In case the GDP reading surpasses analysts’ forecast, this would confirm the Fed’s view that the economy will be able to handle aggressive tightening. On the other hand, a disappointing GDP print could cause the dollar to lose interest and open the door for an Gold (Yellow Metal) recovery.
On Friday, April inflation data from the eurozone will be watched closely by market participants. Earlier in the week, several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers voiced their willingness to hike the policy rate as early as July and said that policy rates could turn positive by the end of the year. Although ECB President Christine Lagarde repeated on Thursday that they will maintain “optionality” amid heightened uncertainty, a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could fuel a rally in EUR/USD. In such a scenario, the selling pressure surrounding the dollar should help gold edge higher.
Finally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, on Friday. Core PCE Price Index is forecast to edge lower to 5.3% on a yearly basis in March from 5.4% in February. A soft PCE inflation figure should weigh on the dollar, supporting gold, and vice versa for a stronger result.
Spot Gold Forecast & Technical Outlook
Weekly Gold Forecast: The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the February-March uptrend seems to have formed strong support at $1,925. The 50-day SMA is reinforcing that level as well. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart is holding near 50, suggesting that sellers are struggling to dominate gold’s price action for the time being.
If Gold daily close below $1,925, Gold (Yellow Metal) could fall toward $1,899 (psychological level, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and target $1,877 (static level, 100-day SMA) next.
On the upside, $1,952 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) aligns as first resistance. In case buyers manage to flip that level into support, $1,977 (static level) could be seen as the next bullish target ahead of $2,000 (psychological level, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
|Spot Gold Trading Tips|
|If Gold Daily Close Below $1,925 Level, Down Side Target Price $1,899—$1,877|
Gold’s indecisiveness in the short term is reflected by the GoldSilverReports Forecast Poll, which shows that 50% of experts are bullish on the one-week view against 30% and 20% bearish and neutral, respectively. The one-quarter view is overwhelmingly bullish with an average target of $2,030.
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