Gold Price Target And Forecast: Gold continues to improve, but still has more work to do to mark an important break higher, in the opinion of strategists at Credit Suisse.
Break below $1,818 to Alleviate upside pressure
“Gold has strengthened sharply and is above rising short, medium- and long-term averages and the spotlight is firmly on the $1,877 high of November. Only a weekly close above here though would suggest we are seeing a more sustainable move higher, for a test of $1,917 next. Above this latter level though would be seen to add momentum to a rally, raising the prospect of a move back to the $2075 high.”
“Below $1,821 is needed to ease the immediate upward bias but with a move below $1,780 needed to clear the way for a retest of key price and retracement support from the lower end of the range at $1,691/76.”
Gold holds firm tone ahead of Fed minutes
Spot gold regained traction on Wednesday and bounced 0.5% following Tuesday’s 1% drop, keeping steady tone on strong demand as safe haven against geopolitical tensions and a hedge against inflation.
Traders await release of Fed minutes of its Jan 25/26 policy meeting, due later today, to get more clues about the US central bank’s next steps.
The US Federal Reserve signaled it will start its tightening cycle in March, with 0.25% hike, but a number of market participants expects more aggressive approach after inflation in January surged to a 40-year high, and bet for 0.5% raise of interest rates.
Economists expect inflation to remain stubbornly high that would prompt the Fed to act faster than expected, with such scenario to be negative for gold as higher interest rates increase cost of non-yielding metal.
Technical studies on daily chart remain bullish but somewhat extended that may slow bulls on attempts towards key barriers at $1876/79 (50% retracement of $2074/$1677 descend / 20-d upper Bollinger band /2022 high) which guard targets at $1900/23 (round-figure / Fibo 61.8%).
Solid supports lay at $1841/36 (Fibo 38.2% of $1780/$1879 upleg / rising 10DMA), with break here to sideline bulls for deeper pullback.
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