According to Citi Research, gold prices might have peaked, with a projected decline in the third quarter of 2025. The firm anticipates gold will likely stabilize between $3,100 and $3,500 per troy ounce in Q3, followed by a further drop through the end of 2025 into 2026.
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Citi also suggests that unexpected resolutions to geopolitical tensions could accelerate the decline in gold prices. Front-month gold futures closed 1% lower at $3,396.40 per troy ounce, ending a three-day rally, though it remains the fifth-highest settlement on record.
Gold investors could react to revisions in Fed dot plot, geopolitics
The economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases that could drive Gold’s valuation in the first half of the week. Hence, investors will continue to pay close attention to geopolitical developments. In case the tensions in the Middle East escalate further, Gold (XAU/USD) could continue to find demand as a safe-haven asset.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot.
The Fed is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at the 4.25%-4.5% range. In case the dot plot shows that policymakers are still projecting two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts in 2025, the USD could come under selling pressure with the immediate reaction and open the door for a leg higher in XAU/USD. On the other hand, a hawkish revision to the SEP, with policymakers forecasting only one rate cut this year, could fuel a USD rally and cause XAU/USD to turn south.
Market participants could also react to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. If Powell acknowledges softer inflation data and adopts an optimistic tone about the outlook, the USD could have a difficult time finding demand. Conversely, the USD could hold its ground in case Powell reiterates that the central bank needs to remain patient with regard to policy easing, citing relatively healthy conditions in the labor market.
On Thursday, financial markets in the US will remain closed in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver ((XAG/USD)) barely moving with 2 Doji’s & holding inside of Friday’s range, so same levels apply for today.
For today support at $35.60 will be key again.
A break above $36.40 could trigger a retest of the June high at $37.00——$37.60
However a break below $35.20 risks a slide to 35.00 & perhaps as far as $3480——$3420.
