Gold’s Anti-Dollar Bounce Looks Like it Will Feel the Weight of Persistent Fed Forecasts

Fed Forecasts: The bearish reversal from gold that followed the successful hold of the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the March 8th peak high to November 3rd range low at approximately 1,790 seems to have run out of short-term steam.

The four-day slide was fairly persistent given the standard consecutive day trends of the past 12 months, but the progress was somewhat wanting. Over that same period of retreat through Monday, the market had only lost -2.3 percent in altitude which is meaningfully smaller than four-session moves through early October, throughout September and other periods in 2022.

Where the market semes to have found a temporary sense of balance, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of high-profile technical precedence. The 38.2 percent Fib of the November rally is down at 1,722 while the 20 and 100-day simple moving averages are further down at 1,711. That lack of chart-based guideline can foster volatility, but – as with most markets – the potential for trend will be undermined by thinning liquidity heading into Thanksgiving.

  • The Market Perspective: Gold Bearish Below 1,730
  • Gold managed to cap its four-day slide Tuesday just as the Dollar’s own rebound wavered
  • However, in comparing the dominant fundamental themes at work, there is a distinctly strong correlation between the metal and Fed rate forecasts

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