MCX Tips Natural Gas: Natural gas markets have exploded to the upside during the trading session on Tuesday as traders came back from the Memorial Day holiday.
Natural gas markets have gapped higher to rocket towards the $3.13 level early on Monday, but it is worth noting that the $3.20 level has been massive resistance. I think there is a real fight on our hands here, and as long as that level holds, we will eventually get the breakdown that typically accompanies natural gas this time of year.
That being said, I believe that this market will continue to focus on multiple things at the same time, not the least of which will be the fact that the weather in the United States recently has been somewhat cool, but it is also worth noting that eventually the temperatures rise and therefore demand for natural gas will start to falter.
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However, there is a general “commodity boom” at the moment which is running countercyclical to the norms and therefore I think what we are seeing here is natural gas get a little bit of a “knock on effect” from other commodities overall, and there could even be a little bit of a psychological influence with the US dollar dropping overall.
With all that being said, I still think that we have high potential to fall rather hard at one point or another this summer, but I would have to admit that a break above the $3.30 level would blow the roof off of the market, and at that point it is hard to tell where we would go. I do think that we are getting kind of out of the realm of normalcy here, so regardless of the next move, it should be done with a relatively small position as natural gas has been extraordinarily erratic.
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